
2025-06-05 09:40:09
This https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.15919 has been replaced.
link: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=a
This https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.15919 has been replaced.
link: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=a
The full formula for the probability of "success" is:
p = {
1/(2^(-n 1)) if n is negative, or
1 - (1/(2^(n 1))) if n is zero or positive
}
(Both branches have the same value when n is 0, so the behavior is smooth around the origin.)
How can we tweak this?
First, we can introduce fixed success and/or failure chances unaffected by level, with this formula only taking effect if those don't apply. For example, you could do 10% failure, 80% by formula, and 10% success to keep things from being too sure either way even when levels are very high or low. On the other hand, this flattening makes the benefit of extra advantage levels even less exciting.
Second, we could allow for gradations of success/failure, and treat the coin pools I used to explain that math like dice pools a bit. An in-between could require linearly more success flips to achieve the next higher grade of success at each grade. For example, simple success on a crit role might mean dealing 1.5x damage, but if you succeed on 2 of your flips, you get 9/4 damage, or on 4 flips 27/8, or on 7 flips 81/16. In this world, stacking crit levels might be a viable build, and just giving up on armor would be super dangerous. In the particular case I was using this for just now, I can't easily do gradations of success (that's the reason I turned to probabilities in the first place) but I think I'd favor this approach when feasible.
The main innovation here over simple dice pools is how to handle situations where the number of dice should be negative. I'm almost certain it's not a truly novel innovation though, and some RPG fan can point out which system already does this (please actually do this, I'm an RPG nerd too at heart).
I'll leave this with one more tweak we could do: what if the number 2 in the probability equation were 3, or 2/3? I think this has a similar effect to just scaling all the modifiers a bit, but the algebra escapes me in this moment and I'm a bit lazy. In any case, reducing the base of the probability exponent should let you get a few more gradations near 50%, which is probably a good thing, since the default goes from 25% straight to 50% and then to 75% with no integer stops in between.
Series A, Episode 06 - Seek-Locate-Destroy
RONTANE: With respect, Supreme Commander, we are aware of the facts. They are simply that with all the resources that the Federation can call upon, this one vulnerable, lucky man is still free to cause havoc.
SERVALAN: You have some criticism of my handling of this matter, Secretary Rontane?
htt…
Despite what many purchasing departments think, software developers are not fungible assets.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alsutton_im
Cycling question: trying out saddles, in the UK
UK cycling people, is there somewhere you'd go to sit on different saddles to test if they're comfortable? Is that a thing?
I've worked out that my (default came-with-the-bike) saddle isn't the right shape for me: it's giving me an achy tailbone, as well as I think being a bit too narrow for optimal sit-bone comfort.
For context, I'm an "occasional cyclist for pleasure and/or practical reasons", shall we say. No ambition to be super fast.
Looking around online, I think I want something more like the Rido R2 or one of the Selle ones, shaped to have air under the tailbone area. Or maybe even a noseless one like the Spongy Wonder, though I don't like the look of how the metal frame sticks out at the front of those.
What's the chances a shop would have more than one of those and a willingness to get them out for a test sit? Or, better still, is there a loan scheme anywhere, so you can actually "test drive" them for a bit? Or do people usually just buy and be willing to sell again?
I'm in Nottingham, and I know there are bike shops I could get to, but I'm not seeing "come in and try all these saddles, we'll help you to find the right one" kinds of messaging.
Could also potentially travel elsewhere at some point if it turns out there's some kind of "best place in the country for that question".
Advice welcome!
#cycling #BikeTooter #AskFedi #UK